A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
