Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
